- Parts appearing in Deus Ex: Human Revolution:
- Parts appearing in Deus Ex: Mankind Divided:
Where Will We Be in 2050?[edit | edit source]
There was once a time when we believed that the world would become a monolithic nation-state, a kind of 'United States of Earth', brought together under the global aegis of a super-governmental body. But now that prediction seems quaint and hackneyed.
The reality is that we live in an era where sovereign nations and the formal governments of countries are little more than lines of demarcation upon the world's maps. More and more citizens of the world lend their loyalty not to a flag, but to the only true trans-national entities that still thrive - corporations. We thus foresee a time when people will be citizens of their employer's 'nation' rather than Chinese, French, Canadian, etc. And in this world, what we have thought of as traditional nation-complexes - such as America - will fragment in order to find their own equilibrium.
The Future To Come[edit | edit source]
A natural outgrowth of today's increasing fragmentation of governmental/national structures will be a return to a concept that was once a key part of medieval and renaissance era cultures - the city-state.
Narrowing a focus to more local issues instead of "federal" mandates is a common reaction to a threat mindset. Several cities, most notably Seattle and Dallas in the United States of America, have already adopted a fortress mentality, effectively walling off their dominations to become a minor nation of their own.
On one level, a loss of centralized control is inevitable; but then a greater degree of autonomy can also bring greater benefits in terms of resource allocation and population control. It is estimated that by 2050 this city-state model will be typical, with larger metroplexes such as New York, London, Tokyo, Paris and Moscow incorporating in such fashion.
In Sickness and in Health[edit | edit source]
The horror wrought by the Malaysian H5N1-variant viral outbreak in 2018, coming less than a decade after the 2009-2010 Swine Flu pandemic, showed the world that despite advances in medical technology, we as human beings as still just as much the prey to disease that we were during the era of the Black Plague or 1918's influenza occurrence.
Scientists claim to be closer than ever to cures for cancer, for the AIDS/HIV virus and other disease vectors, and we might hope that in the next thirty years these killers might be finally put to rest; but we must also consider that our changing world brings with it old iterations of old pandemics, and so we as a species will remain under the shadow of a threat from some new and as-yet un-encountered confluence of viral forms.
Fall of an Empire[edit | edit source]
For the last 250 years, the United States of America has flourished. Often growing by leaps and bounds, sometimes at a more leisurely pace. In a finite world, that growth may ultimately lead to its demise.
Bloated government. Bloated population. Bloated populace. Whispers of discontent with the federal government and its power over constituent states, disrepancies in interpretation of the constitution, and continuing struggles in the global marketplace against the economic power of the Chinese bloc. All this had led to a crisis point.
The next three decades will not see the complete dissolution of the United States, but there are strong rumblings that some states will secede from the union. Already militias have established footholds in state and local government in the northwest states as well as in Nevada, Arizona, and Texas.
It seems likely that this is the last gasp of a dying empire and that a second American Civil War could be just around the corner.
A New Russia?[edit | edit source]
In the short time since the Aug Incident, the Russian Federated States have conglomerated into a formidable geo-political entity. Trade pact overtures extended by them to the struggling European Union have been accepted, and their influence can also be seen in South and Central America. But can what many have described as nothing more than "a blatant kleptocracy" not only survive but flourish in the next thirty years?
While having already shown some influence in parts of Eastern Europe, we anticipate - given the continuing struggles of the United States and the social and cultural aftershocks stemming from the Aug Incident - that the RFS will continue to make inroads in the Americas, mostly fuelled by the drug trade. Mexico has already shown itself to be friendly to the burgeoning federation.
This likely means an increase in U.S.-Russo antagonism in the near future, at a time when the U.S. can hardly afford it.
World Police[edit | edit source]
We foresee a time when the world's authorities have a more internationally-enabled approach to fighting organized crime and terrorism.
Already, the ever-increasing influence of the United Nations, especially in these times of trouble and confusion and increasing terrorism, has led to the formation of a special task force.
Under the nominal command of Interpol, and currently based in Lyon, Task Force 29 was formed in 2028 and named for the 29 founding member-nations. Due to the sensitive and highly confidential nature of TF29's affairs, the organization is not advertised to the public and operates under a strict code of professional secrecy such as any similar agency would.
Where might this lead in the near future? It is likely that a unified force fully outside the jurisdiction of any political power is on the horizon. Ratified by the U.N., this force would circumvent international red tape and would be able to respond to global threats without interference from local authorities.
See also[edit | edit source]
Other eBooks about the political state of the world in 2020s: